I'm sure things will go back to normal. But it could take another couple of years.

In the meantime, what happens to food production if farmers cannot afford to put more fertilizer on their fields? In a great year, farmers put 120 - 130 pounds of fertilizer per acre on their farm. They farm it as though, "This is going to be a great year!" The only thing that holds them back is lack of moisture like this past summer. Every so often we'll have a black swan event such as this. If farmers cut back on fertilizer because of the price, then we have a serious production problem. And that is going to increase future prices at retail and wholesale levels. Anything that happens at the farm gate level that is a black swan, is going to impact a lot of things down the road, because it all starts with the dirt.

Why is fertilizer going to double and triple? Is it because of the plants or is there something else?

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure. But I think it has a lot to do with logistics. Natural gas is a big part of fertilizer costs. Natural gas is a main ingredient when you produce fertilizer. So if that is going up in price, that could affect the end cost. Maybe they cannot get enough supply, maybe their scheduling in putting new production online is hampered and maybe it is simply corporate greed. I really have no idea! Again this is part of the value chain as discussed in my last weekly. If someone in the chain is suffering, everyone suffers.

Some thoughts...

Could it have something to do with the green initiatives?

I believe that is part of it. The other part is, governments want farmers to cut back on fertilizer and chemical. Farmers are prepared to do this but how do you solve lower production, higher costs and less revenue. I truly understand we need change. The question is HOW and who pays for it?

There are other factors coming in, and it is regenerative practices and sustainability. Farmers need to cut back on some of these chemicals and some of these fertilizers. But what do you replace it with? Or does the world accept the fact that we are going to have less food production? I don't know.

Is it even feasible to do something like go back to nature and start scraping manure like they used to?

Up until fertilizers came into existence around the 50s, manure was a natural ingredient. But in order to feed the world, you need to have a big kick up in the ingredients that started the plant growth and produce bushels. Man invented and developed chemicals and fertilizers to do just that. It's artificial. Maybe if we go back to nature, we are going to have to replace that food production with something new like improved food technology, plant breeding and better farming practices.

We are in an age of change that is going to have a big impact on everybody! Farming families impact our lives EVERY day because we eat EVERY day!

I look forward to next week when I'll be talking about Something Else!

Fred Mertz
Fred@thevoiceofagriculture.ca